Drukenmiller/Soros – “It’s not whether you’re right or wrong, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.”
Majority of your ST and LT return will likely come from a small handful of tail events/companies; home runs” then come from finding mispriced optionality. “Optionality is the property of asymmetric upside (preferably unlimited) with correspondingly limited downside (preferably tiny). “Occasionally you can find a situation with a big upside and a small downside if you are patient and work hard to find it. When that happens if you can be brave and aggressive in your bet, and manage your probability, then you might hit a home run.”
Intersection notepad 