Given the mainstreaming of yield curve inversion, can argue it could either lead to reflexivity in action i.e. cause the behavior it supposedly predicts, or a reflection of goodhart’s law i.e. its lost its predictive powers since everyone is watching it. That is in the short-term, the so-called reality will thereby be created by the narratives.
Study yield curve inversion as one of many variables (along with investment grade/high-yield spreads, leveraged loan market, housing inventory/housing price cut, and semiconductor) to look at every quarter,
…and apply 2nd layer thinking, you reacting or positioning to what you anticipate the market reaction will be when they see this news; reaction^2.
Market dynamics and financial instruments have changed through the centuries but human emotions and psychology remains somewhat static (yep they used to underwrite land loan yield % for farmers based on their crop yield % back in the 16th century when commodities / spices was the main item of export and import).
In the meantime, maintain liquidity close to shore with short-dated Treasuries or MM and intraday trade volatility on leveraged natural gas and crude oil!
Intersection notepad 