Arbitrage between human tendency to see linear relationships and the nonlinear nature of reality.
Or say it in another, arbitrage between the linear environment that we evolved in and the nonlinear environment that we’ve created. In layman’s term, consume information from a wide range of industries, verticals and sources, even better if you read the ones you originally thought you have no interest in.
Key point number one in Oaktree Capital Howard Mark’s memo is that the future should be viewed not as a fixed outcome that’s destined to happen and capable of being predicted, but as a range of possibilities and, hopefully on the basis of insight into their respective likelihoods, as a probability distribution.
Intersection notepad 